In recent years, several Nigerian states have experimented with peace deals as a way of taming armed groups and bandits.
From dialogue sessions with militia leaders to amnesty programs and even financial incentives, the strategy has often been portrayed as a pragmatic short cut to restoring calm. Yet, time and again, the results have proven disappointing. Instead of ushering in peace, such deals have created more distrust, fueled further violence, and emboldened criminals.
The point to make is that peace deals with bandits in Nigeria do not work. They have not worked in Zamfara, they have not worked in Katsina, and they will not work anywhere else. Yet, state governments continue to recycle the same tired strategy of “dialogue” with criminals, only to be shocked when the violence returns with even greater intensity.
The reason is simple. Banditry is a business. It thrives on ransom payments and extortion. There is no legitimate job in rural Nigeria that can compete with the kind of money these gangs make from kidnapping. Expecting them to abandon that enterprise in exchange for a handshake and some cash from the government is pure self-deception.
Banditry in northern Nigeria is neither centralized nor monolithic. There are dozens of rival groups scattered across the forests of Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna, Sokoto and Niger States, each with its own commanders, territories, and ambitions.
"When you seal a deal with one bandit leader, another feels excluded and responds with more violence to demonstrate his power,” a security expert observed.
This dynamic ensures that every negotiation produces fresh spoilers. Peace in one location is quickly undermined by renewed attacks elsewhere.
Even those who enter into agreements seldom disarm. Instead, they relocate to new territories, regroup, and continue their violent enterprise under a different guise.
And what of the government? Instead of a coherent national strategy, what we have is chaos. One governor calls for dialogue, another insists on force. The federal government issues threats, while local politicians broker deals in backrooms. Bandits exploit these cracks with ease, playing leaders against one another while communities remain unprotected.
Clearly, the deeper crisis is not just about the rising numbers of well-armed bandits and terrorists in our forests. It is about corruption and failed governance. Banditry flourishes because rural communities have been abandoned. Where there are no schools, no roads, no jobs, and no security presence, crime becomes the only economy.
Political leaders, especially at the state level, must accept this reality: unless they govern better, no peace deal will save their people.
It is also unacceptable that our soldiers are sent into battle disillusioned and under-equipped. How do you confront heavily armed terrorists with outdated rifles and poor welfare? Expecting troops to fight and win battles under such conditions is expecting the impossible.
Evidence at our collective disposal is clear that it is better to prevent the conditions that give birth to banditry than to pretend to fight it after it has taken root. The cost of terrorism and banditry which is measured in ransom payments, displaced families, ruined farms, and lost lives, is unimaginably high.
Nigeria must stop outsourcing peace to criminals. Real peace will only come when our leaders prioritise good governance, invest in human development, and stamp out corruption. Anything less is merely feeding the monster.