In six days , Nigerians will file out for the long -awaited
poll. The past six weeks has been dotted with intense
bickering, lobbying, ‘ naira and dollar rains ’ , and outright
hate campaigns . Yusuf Alli, Managing Editor , Northern
Operation, Sam Egburonu , Associate Editor, Dare
Odufowokan, Assistant Editor , Remi Adelowo, Assistant
Editor and Sunday Oguntola review the outlook in the 36
states and the FCT and project likely outcomes .
This Saturday Nigerians will determine who will lead
them in the next four years. Out of the 55, 904 , 272
eligible voters who
had collected their permanent voter
cards ( PVCs ) as at Friday , March 20 , 2015 , 31, 957 , 327
will vote in the 19 Northern states and the Federal
Capital Territory ( FCT ) .
Before the February 7 postponement the momentum
was clearly on the side of the presidential candidate of
the All Progressives Congress ( APC ) , Gen . Muhammadu
Buhari. The six -week shift pushed through by the
Presidency was supposed to enable President Goodluck
Jonathan and the ruling Peoples Democratic Party
( PDP ) regain the initiative .
However , certain unscripted interventions may have
worsened the case of the incumbent in certain regions .
First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan may have gravely
damaged her husband’ s chances in the North when she
accused Northerners of poor family planning . She said :
Wetin him dey find again? Him dey drag with him pikin
mate … Old man wey no get brain , him brain don die pata
pata. Our people no dey born shildren wey dem no dey
fit count . Our men no dey born shildren throway for
street. We no dey like the people for that side .”
Not even the successful military campaign against the
insurgents in the North - East has altered the dynamics
of the race in the North . A status report on the
presidential contest from state to state follows –
beginning with those in the North .
KEBBI
The tide is much more in favour of APC because many
stalwarts or match- winners of PDP have defected to the
opposition . They include leaders like ex - FCT Minister,
Adamu Aliero , Sen . Muhammadu Magoro , Bala Na’ Allah,
Suleuiman Mohammed Argungu and even APC
governorship candidate , Sen. Atiku Bagudu.
The signs of the APC increasing acceptance emerged
when the outgoing First Lady, Zainab Dakingari ,
personally took on the former FCT Minister who handed
her over to the governor.
The depth of APC ’ s grassroots support was underlined
by the action of an 80- year old woman came out openly
to donate her life savings worth N1million to Buhari
after waiting for nine hours to meet the former head of
state .
The situation has degenerated to the extent that angry
citizens of the state now heckle Governor Saidu
Dakingari at rallies . To win election , most candidates of
PDP for National Assembly and State House of
Assembly elections have refused to identify openly with
Jonathan .
A source said : “The PDP is having it rough because of
the poor performance of the governor; imposition of
candidates for elective offices ; mass defection to APC
by grassroots politicians; and lack of unity . With all
these problems , APC is in the blood of everyone in this
state . ”
Verdict: An 80- 20 vote spread likely in favour of APC .
NIGER
Despite spirited moves to deny his association with the
opposition and disparage Buhari at the PDP presidential
campaign rally , Governor Babangida Aliyu knows the
game is up for his party in the state . Even the manner
in which Aliyu was panting and making unsolicited and
irrelevant remarks suggested he was facing some
electoral challenges. PDP ’ s fortunes further slipped
down with the defection of the Deputy Governor, Musa
Ibeto to APC . This is in addition to the loss of Niger
East Senatorial District by -election seat to APC ’ s David
Umar. The National Assembly Election Tribunal declared
Umar as the validly elected senator instead of Nuhu
Zagbayi of PDP . The refusal of the governor to handover
to his deputy while going for lesser Hajj has boosted
APC ’ s chances .
Verdict: A 60 -40 spread in favour of APC .
KWARA
Kwarans are still celebrating the tumultuous crowd
which welcomed APC ’ s presidential campaign train to
the state . The crowd doubled a similar one for PDP .
Rather than allowing campaign to move on smoothly ,
the PDP has resorted to violence with the attack on
some APC leaders and members including the campaign
convoy of the wife of APC presidential candidate , Mrs .
Aishat Buhari .
The presidency is covertly trying to woo the
gamesmaster of Kwara politics, Dr . Bukola Saraki, to its
side but with its recourse to media blackmail of APC
leaders, the battle line is drawn . The only survival straw
of PDP now is to reach out to the church and make it
to believe that the general election is a religious war .
The APC is trying to discountenance the propaganda .
Verdict: APC to win the state in a 70 to 30 vote spread.
BAUCHI
The war between Governor Isa Yuguda and the FCT
Minister, Bala Mohammed , since the stoning of the
presidential convoy in Bauchi has further polarised PDP
in the state . The leaders are now working at cross-
purposes in a political terrain that is not entirely under
the control of PDP . At a point , the governor was
accused of producing both the PDP and APC
governorship candidates in a deft political move to win
either way during the general election . PDP National
Chairman, Alhaji Adamu Muazu , has been accused of
not working hard enough for the victory of Jonathan. In
fact , Mu ’ azu on Thursday was quick to tell party
members that “… I do not see a landslide coming .” The
state has always been a political stronghold of Buhari in
the last 12 years.
Verdict: APC to win by 70- 30 per cent.
SOKOTO
Governor Aliyu Wamakko and the APC are gaining more
ground in the state . Known as “Alu Sai Alu ”, Wamakko
strongest points are ability to relate freely with the poor
at the grassroots ; ability to deliver on his promises; and
a performance which has overshadowed the records of
his predecessors , especially ex - Governor Attahiru
Bafarawa . The internal crisis in PDP has buoyed the
governor and APC ’ s chances of coasting home to
success . As at press time , thousands of supporters of
Deputy Governor Mukhtar Shagari had chosen to work
for APC rather than the party ’ s governorship candidate ,
Ambassador Abdallah Wali.
Verdict: APC victory in an 80- 20 vote spread .
KOGI
A major headache of PDP in the state is the poor
performance of Governor Idris Wada which has been
attributed to inherited debts from the administration of
ex -Governor Ibrahim Idris . The relapsing health
challenge of the governor has slowed him down in
gaining electoral advantage for the president . The non -
payment of minimum wage to primary school teachers ’
has pitched PDP against the masses . This is also
creating electoral threat to the ruling party’ s success .
The PDP is sticking to old jokers of ethnic, cultural and
religious prejudices .
The fact that there is no governorship poll in Kogi State
has made the battle very close between the PDP and
APC . Also, the defection of major stakeholders in Kogi
East and Kogi Central has given APC a slight edge
above PDP . The stakeholders from Kogi East are Alh .
Linko Ocheje ( the strong man of Ankpa politics); Mallam
Sani Egwu; Gen . Salifu Atawodi; Chief John Odawn ( the
long- serving state PDP chairman); Sen . Alex Kadiri ; Sen .
Yahaya Ugbane ; Hon . Ikani; Hon . Gowon ( IGN ); Hon .
Ismail Ina Hussein ; Hon. Adejoh Akowe ; Hon . Musa
Idoko; and Hon . Aduku Ojodale .
Those who left PDP for APC in Kogi Central are Sen .
Mohammed Ohiare; Sen . Salihu Ohize ; ex - Speaker
Abdullahi Bello ; Chief Michael Ozovehe; Alh . Idris Ozi
Shuaibu; Hon. Sule Kokori; Hon . Kabir Ajanah ; and Hon .
Bashir Sani Omolori . In Kogi West , some PDP chieftains
who have defected to APC and other parties are ex -
Yagba West LGA chairman, Hon . Tunji Aro; former
Chairman, Yagba East , Hon . Abdulkadir Jimoh
Salahudeen ( a.k .a Erukutu); former Chairman,
Mopamuro LGA , Hon . Pedro Obadofin ; Hon . Salifu
Akawu Sule ; ex- Chairman, Kotonkarfe LGA , Hon . Shaba
Mohammed; and Commodore Foluso Daniels .
Those trying to salvage PDP in Kogi State now are Sen .
Smart Adeyemi ( Kogi West) and the Minister of Justice
and Attorney- General of the Federation , Mr. Mohammed
Bello Adoke ( SAN ) , who can no longer afford to remain
in the background as a technocrat . The rescue mission
of the Minister to Kogi Central Senatorial District for the
PDP has made the game difficult for APC in the area .
Adoke had offset the SSCE fees of all final year
secondary school students in the five local government
areas in the district . Kogi is now 50 -50 . A top source
said : “We are not voting for Jonathan because of his
failure to fulfill any of the promises made to leaders of
Kogi West / Okunland , led by the late Chief S .B . Daniyan
at his pre -2011 election meeting with them at the
Presidential Villa .
“Also, several critical PDP stakeholders have refused to
defect openly to other parties and have vowed to give
surreptitious support to the opposition to ensure the
decimation of the PDP at the polls . And very much like
Mr. President, Governor Wada has not been able to
come to grips with his mandate , nearly four years in
office.
Verdict: Too close to call.
TARABA
Despite his bombshell against some ex- militants, a
former Minister of Defence, Gen . Theophilus Danjuma ,
holds the ace for PDP victory in Taraba State . But APC
and SDP are giving PDP some headache in the state .
When the Acting Governor, Alhaji Abubakar Danladi,
kicked off his senatorial campaign in Karim Lamido ; he
was greeted with chants of “Ba mu yi ”. The yeoman’ s
job of Sen . Aishatu Alhassan ( Sai Mama) has improved
the prospects of APC . The religious factor is being
exploited by PDP to secure its reign in the state . One
thing is certain : Buhari will secure the mandatory 25 per
cent of the total votes cast .
Verdict: PDP to win
KADUNA
The disastrous campaign outing of the PDP presidential
campaign train to the state indicated that the party is
unpopular in the state . With some empty seats at the
stadium and the shout of Sai Buhari , President
Jonathan and members of the PDP presidential
Campaign team were rattled . Findings revealed that
APC and Buhari are in control of the northern part of
Kaduna like Zaria and Lere. The opposition has always
controlled the Central Senatorial District too especially
Birnin Gwari , Kaduna North , Kaduna South and Igabi.
Disunity is the bane of PDP in the state with 80 per cent
of supporters and loyalists of ex -Governor Ahmed
Makarfi defecting to APC .
The spate of killings in Southern Kaduna , the removal of
the former GMD of NNPC , and the sack of a former
chairman of SURE - P, Lt . Gen . Martin Luther Agwai ( rtd )
might make it difficult for PDP to retain its grip on the
state .
The anger in Southern Kaduna against the PDP is much
and it will be difficult for Jonathan to assuage it . To
add to the burden of PDP , the choice of the APC Deputy
Governorship candidate , Arc . Barnabas Bala Bantex has
made the ruling party in the state to run helter - skelter.
Bantex is loved by the people of Southern Kaduna and
he is said to be a rallying point for them
Unfortunately for the President, he is being careful in
directly intervening in the party’ s affairs in Kaduna State
because it is the domain of his deputy . The race
appears headed towards victory for APC unless Vice -
President Namadi Sambo overhauls his party ’ s
campaign machinery .
Verdict: APC to win 60- 40.
PLATEAU
Unknown to many Nigerians , the race is tighter in
Plateau State this time around between PDP and APC
because of the manner in which the PDP primaries were
rigged in favour of some candidates and the demand for
power shift . The people of Southern and Central Plateau
have rejected the imposition of another governorship
candidate , Sen . Gyang Pwajok from Plateau North on
them after eight- year tenure of Governor David Jang .
Out of the 17 local governments in the state , Plateau
North has six, South ( six) and Central is left with five .
Motivated by the urge for power shift , the people of
Southern and Central Plateau have opted for APC
leaving only Plateau North in PDP . The APC
governorship candidate , Hon. Simon Lalong is from
Southern Plateau and his deputy is the immediate past
Vice Chancellor of the University of Jos, Prof . Sonny
Tyodem from Plateau Central. On its part , the PDP
picked its candidate , Sen. Gyang Pwajok from Plateau
North and deputy , U .G . Gomwalk from Kanke in Plateau
Central.
More PDP leaders and members have also moved over
to APC forcing most political office holders from Plateau
State , like the Minister of Water Resources, Mrs . Sarah
Ochekpe, to relocate home to salvage the situation . Out
of the 16 governorship aspirants in PDP , 13 defected to
APC , two remain neutral and Pwajok is on his own .
Though the defectors have succeeded in shaking PDP ,
the ruling party in the state has a narrow edge over APC
due to the population advantage of Plateau North .
Governor Jang has sustained religious and tribal
politicking to checkmate the growing influence of APC in
the state .
Verdict: Battleground
ZAMFARA
Ex - Governor Sani Yerima and his political son, Abdulaziz
Yari, have continued to enjoy more grassroots support
in the state . They are having an easy ride because the
politics in the state has followed the same pattern since
1999 . The State Publicity Secretary of APC , Sani Ahmed
Gwamna, said the party has no opposition in the state .
“Everybody knows that since the beginning of the Fourth
Republic in 1999 , PDP has never won an election to
form government in Zamfara, ” he said . The aloofness of
the Minister of Defence , Gen . Aliyu Gusau, to the
presidential campaign has foreclosed any good outing
for PDP .
Verdict: A 70 -30 vote spread in favour of APC .
ADAMAWA
The centre no longer holds in Adamawa PDP to the
extent that President Jonathan made an emergency
shuttle to the state last Saturday. He got more than he
bargained for when stakeholders only promised to vote
for him during the presidential poll. Overwhelmed by the
challenge at hand, Jonathan paid a nocturnal visit to
ex -Vice President Atiku Abubakar for help . Instead ,
Abubakar shunned his invitation to return to PDP .
The party is locked in a cold war following the failure of
its recent reconciliation over the choice of ex - EFCC
chairman, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu as the party’ s
governorship candidate . Ribadu ’ s olive branch is yet to
be accepted by stakeholders who are embittered about
the conduct of the party’ s primaries in Abuja . The
PDP ’ s headache is how to heal all wounds and defeat
the PDM candidate , Dr . Ahmed Mohammed Modibbo
and the APC candidate , Sen . Jibrilla Bindo . It is
certainly an open race in Adamawa where Buhari’ s wife
hails from . Adamawa is 50- 50 for the presidential
election .
Verdict: Battleground
BENUE
More than any period in his political career , Governor
Gabriel Suswam of Benue State is fighting for his own
survival such that he finds it difficult to take the party ’ s
governorship candidate , Terhemen Tarzor along.
Suswam is in a cul -de -sac because of inability to pay
workers minimum wage ; owing of workers six months’
salaries ; prolonged strikes in the state which led to
closure of schools for eight months and a sharp drop in
popularity rating .
The defection of ex -Minister Samuel Ortom and Chief
Barnabas Gemade to APC is still haunting the PDP . This
development has forced Suswam to embark on
aggressive dusk - to - dawn campaign . With a high
prospect of winning two out of the three senatorial
districts in the state , APC is giving PDP sleepless
nights . The game remains 50- 50 in the state because of
ethnic and religious factors which Suswam may latch
on. Otherwise in a free and fair atmosphere , it is APC ’ s .
Verdict: Battleground
GOMBE
Notwithstanding the denial of security threats in Gombe
State by Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo at the National
Council of State meeting , the state is prone to political
violence because the ruling PDP is feeling the
competitive heat of the opposition . The formidable
structure of ex - Governor Danjuma Goje , which produced
the governor in 2011 , is formidable to the extent that
attempts were made to set Goje up on phantom security
offences . The situation now is such that APC and PDP
are in a 50- 50 rating .
Verdict: Battleground
BORNO
Despite insurgency, the massive turn - out at APC
presidential campaign rally in Maiduguri has destabilized
PDP and Jonathan camp. The PDP ’ s woes in the state
worsened on Wednesday when a Federal High Court in
Abuja declared Gambo Lawan as the authentic
governorship flag- bearer of the party in Borno State .
Justice Ahmed Mohammed ordered the PDP to
substitute the name of Alhaji Mohammed Imam with
Lawan. The judgment was a setback for ex - Governor
Modu Ali Sheriff whose candidate Imam was . A party
source said : “We are in disarray; we were devastated by
the judgment. Supporters of Imam will rather work for
APC than Lawan. ”
Though the state is still one of those classified as facing
security threats at the last Council of State meeting , it
remains APC territory . The campaign so far has
revealed that the PDP is depending on federal might to
capitalize on the insurgency in the state to manipulate
the electoral process . The APC relies on the integrity
and achievements of Governor Kashim Shettima, despite
all odds, to retain the control of the state .
Verdict: APC to win by an 80- 20 per cent vote spread .
YOBE
With two out of the three senatorial districts in its kitty ,
Yobe remains firmly hooked to APC because the state
had pitched tent with the opposition since 1999 . Ex -
Governor Bukar Ibrahim , the political godfather of the
state , has been the pivot. With the achievements of
Governor Ibrahim Gaidam , retaining the state is easier
for APC . The PDP , which initially had challenges over
the choice of its governorship candidate , Adamu Maina
Waziri , is coming up stronger but is unlikely to displace
APC . The decision of Major Hamzat Al - Mustapha, a
former CSO to the late Head of State , Gen . Sani Abacha ,
to lie low has diminished the electoral fortunes of PDP
in the state . The permutations that Al- Mustapha will be
an electoral asset have failed for PDP .
Verdict: A 70 -30 scenario in favour of APC is likely
here.
JIGAWA
In spite of the ranting of Governor Sule Lamido against
APC leaders, the opposition will win the presidential poll
in the state . One of the reasons Lamido is begrudging
Buhari is the fact that the latter controls large following
in Jigawa State . Even under ANPP and CPC platforms ,
Buhari had always won Jigawa hands down in 2003 ,
2007 and 2011 . Since January, the governor ’ s
comments have given advantage more to Buhari than
Jonathan . In January, Lamido told the News Agency of
Nigeria ( NAN) that “I agreed like every other person that
Buhari is an incorruptible , honest , clean and patriotic
Nigerian . My concern has always been defectors who
our party, PDP , had made ministers , governors, speakers
and members of the National Assembly and left us after
benefiting so much .” For the presidential race, Buhari is
the man to beat in Jigawa. But the governor will cling
to any straw to retain the state for PDP in other strands
of election .
Verdict: A 70 -30 vote spread in favour of APC .
KATSINA
This remains an APC enclave because it is the home of
Buhari. During the week , many PDP members tucked
their membership cards into big bags and burnt them .
The elite forces are also overwhelmingly against PDP .
These are prominent Katsina sons seeking power shift ,
APC strong leaders, those who defected from PDP to
APC , and the loyalists of ex - President Umaru Yar’ Adua
working for Buhari . Though the PDP is trying to survive ,
the people of the state will vote for APC because they
want the presidency which they lost in 2010 , due to the
death of ex - President Umaru Yar’ Adua , to return to the
state . The removal of the Acting Executive Chairman of
the Federal Inland Revenue Service( FIRS ) , Mallam Kabir
Mashi, at the prompting of some PDP stalwarts, is a
minus for Jonathan in the state because it will lead to
protest votes against PDP in some parts of the state .
Verdict: APC likely to win the state in a 70- 30 format .
KANO
This is still a tough terrain for Jonathan and the PDP .
For almost a week , Vice President Namadi Sambo was
in Kano to woo opinion leaders and voters . He got more
than he bargained for during an interactive session with
academic staff who gave the Jonathan administration a
low mark .
The Kwankwassiya political dynasty has successfully
managed its succession plan which has given APC an
advantage to consolidate . The commissioning of some
projects in Kano State in recent weeks has added more
pep to the score sheet of Governor Rabiu Musa
Kwankwaso . The fresh call by the Emir of Kano , Sanusi
Lamido Sanusi to the NNPC account for the
controversial $ 20 billion oil funds might seal the fate of
PDP in the state . But the Minister of Education, Mallam
Ibrahim Shekarau is trying his best to salvage the PDP
although he can only hope to secure the required 25 per
cent of the total votes cast for the President.
Verdict: An 80- 20 per cent victory for APC .
NASARAWA
The combined forces of Governor Tanko Al -Makura and
a former Secretary of the Board of Trustees of the PDP ,
ex -Governor Abdullahi Adamu have upstaged the PDP
and APGA in the state . Though the APGA governorship
candidate , ex -Minister Labaran Maku is whipping up
religious sentiments , the outcome of the marathon
campaign tours of APC has shown that Al -Makura
remains the candidate to beat . His selling point is what
a source described as his “humility . ” If there was any
hope left for Maku , it was shattered by the Director -
General of PDP Campaign Organization, Dr. Ahmadu Ali ,
who described the former Minister as an ingrate . The
exit of Maku from PDP has altered the game strongly in
favour for APC . Up till now , the PDP campaign in the
state has no bite as if the party has resigned to fate .
Verdict: APC to win
FCT
The PDP is leading because it controls the government
machinery in the six area councils and it has the biggest
war chest for campaign in the territory . The subtle
wooing and recognition of traditional rulers has also
made the party to penetrate the grassroots . The Vice
Presidential Candidate of APC , Prof . Yemi Osinbajo went
on campaign tour of the six councils about a week ago
but the area is still leaning towards the ruling party.
Verdict: It is still 60 -40 in favour of PDP .
ABIA
In Abia State , President Jonathan and PDP are very
hopeful of recording a landslide victory . This is because
of his unshaken relationship with Governor Theodore
Orji, who controls the party machinery. Aside the hope
of utilising Orji’ s incumbency factor, First Lady Patience
Jonathan ’ s mother hails from the state and this has
been used to mobilize support for Jonathan . Also , the
PDP has managed to dictate the pace in Abia State
politics over the years mainly because of Orji ’ s style of
governance. Until recently, he has succeeded in
rendering opposition parties redundant in the state .
Even now that some of opposition parties are gathering
steam , most of them like All Progressives Grand Alliance
( APGA) and the PPA are campaigning for Jonathan .
Our investigation confirms that while governorship and
other legislative elections would be a close contest
between the ruling PDP and the opposition , Jonathan is
likely to win the presidential election here but not with
98 percent as was the case in 2011 . In fact , most
respondents are optimistic that APC ’ s candidate , Buhari
may get 25 percent votes here unlike 0.31 percent he
got in 2011 .
Verdict: PDP to win .
ANAMBRA
Anambra State is an All Progressives Grand Alliance
( APGA) - led state but for the presidency , the state has
consistently voted for PDP . In 2011 , Jonathan , the PDP
flagbearer got 98.96 percent of all the votes cast at the
presidential contest .
If not for recent political developments , one would have
predicted the same trend, since APGA , as it did in 2011 ,
has no presidential candidate but has pledged to queue
behind Jonathan . But unlike what happened in 2011 ,
APC ’ s Buhari will get reasonable votes from the state .
As Ekwueme, a political father in Anambra State , pointed
out , all is no longer at ease with PDP . The elder
statesman said “Anambra and Igbo vote can no longer
be taken for granted . This is even so as Senator Chris
Ngige- led state APC has taken the state by storm
thereby popularizing the opposition party there . There
is no doubt that APC is very popular in Anambra State
and so Buhari seems poised to take advantage of it .
Buhari’ s major setback in this state and most of the
other South- East states is PDP ’ s continuous campaign
that the former Head of State hates Ndigbo and singled
out Igbo leaders like Ekwueme , Sam Mbakwe and Jim
Nwobodo for imprisonment .
Verdict: Jonathan
EBONYI
Ebonyi State is a traditional PDP state which gave
Jonathan 95. 57 percent of its votes in 2011 . However ,
some observers say it has become a major battle
ground in this election .
The ripple effects from the crisis in PDP , which
culminated in the political coup that dislodged control of
the party from Governor Martin Elechi is poised to
change the state ’ s political game.
It seems the only things that may guarantee Jonathan
success here are Senator Pius Anyim Pius ’
determination to market Jonathan ’ s ability to retain
Elechi ’ s support for the presidency .
Left to the supporters of the embattled governor, who
have already moved over to Labour Party , both
Jonathan and his party would have been humbled in
this state . Many of them would have gladly released
protest votes in favour of Buhari . This would have been
most feasible because of the increasing strength of the
rival APC in the state , where Dr . Ogbonnaya Onu’ s
influence has come to play .
Verdict: Jonathan
ENUGU
Following alleged reconciliation of the Senator Ike
Ekweremadu- led faction of PDP in Enugu and that of
Governor Sullivan Chime, Jonathan ’ s supporters are
optimistic he will easily win in the state , where he got
98. 54 percent votes against Buhari ’ s 0.36 percent in
2011 .
While it may not be out of place for PDP to be
optimistic in Enugu , insiders in the state ’ s politics said
many interests have been hurt in the pre- election
politicking. This includes but not limited to the
bitterness of the Senator Ayogu Eze ’ s camp of the PDP .
Added to this is the dynamic campaign of Okey Ezea -
led APC , which is poised to serve as a boost to
Buhari’ s political fortunes in the state . With its Catholic
dominated population, there is also the fear in the PDP
camp that Father Mbaka ’ s recent sermon may sway
precious votes to Buhari ’ s box.
Verdict: Jonathan
IMO
Currently, Imo State is an APC state where Governor
Rochas Okorocha ’ s influence is a major boost for
General Buhari .
But The Nation learnt that the PDP ’ s campaign has
been tailored to diminish Buhari ’ s influence as he was
lavishly described as an Igbo hater , who singled out
Igbo leaders like Chief Sam Onunaka Mbakwe , for jail .
The former governor of old Imo State is so adored in
the state that this singular campaign may swing the
presidency to Jonathan in the state .
So , while APC seems certain to win the governorship
election , the presidency may be too close to call or
slightly in favour of Jonathan .
Verdict: Too close to call
AKWA IBOM
As far as Governor Godswill Akpabio is concerned,
President Jonathan can go to bed regarding the state .
He has good reasons to be that optimistic. The state
organised the most boisterous campaign event when
the President’ s team came calling . Almost everyone in
Akwa Ibom attended the campaign .
The state has also been a stronghold of the Peoples
Democratic Party ( PDP ) , winning every electoral office
since 1999. Having been elevated contentiously to
becoming the highest earning state from the federal
allocation , Akwa Ibom indigenes will consider voting for
Jonathan a favour returned .
But it would be too simplistic to dismiss Buhari’ s
chances just yet. The APC has been making serious
incursions in Akwa Ibom since Obong Umana Umana
emerged its governorship candidate . His Uyo senatorial
district has the highest voting population in the state
and should be angling for their own .
Observers however said the APC might not make much
impact at the presidential elections , saying most Akwa
Ibom voters will consider the ethnic and religious factors
in the choice . Based on these and with an incumbent
governor armed with heavy war chests , Jonathan is
expected to carry the state easily. But Buhari may be in
contention to win at least 25% owing to the Umana ’ s
factor . The defection yesterday of former governor Victor
Attah to APC could also be significant.
Verdict: Jonathan
CROSS RIVER
The state should be an easy pie for Jonathan . He is
considered a son of the soil and a friend of the state .
The proximity of his native Bayelsa state will be an
added incentive for voters to pick him in the state .
The PDP has been dominant at all levels in the state
since the return of democratic rule . An implosion during
the party’ s governorship primary that produced Senator
Ben Ayade has been well-managed to the amazement of
the opposition .
Jonathan , seen as a fellow Christian and South -South
brother, will certainly garner massive votes in the state .
It is hard to tell how much weight the APC can pull to
win votes for Buhari , a Muslim northern . It is even
harder to contemplate him winning as much as 25% in
the state . Given the ongoing scenario, Jonathan will
carry the state without much ado
Verdict: Jonathan wins
RIVERS
If there is a state that can define this presidential
election , it would be no other than Rivers . The two
leading candidates have gladiators here, sparing no
effort or design to make them win . On the side of APC
is Governor Rotimi Amaechi , who is Director General of
the Muhammadu Buhari’ s campaign .
Amaechi , a dogged fighter , is a political veteran . He
knows Rivers politics like the palms of his hands. He’ s a
two- time governor and an ex -Speaker . It has taken
nothing more than sheer willpower and doggedness to
fight a President and then defect to the opposition party
without as much as scratch . For every weapon fired at
him, Amaechi returns the salvo with ten deadlier
canisters.
The APC has gained much ground since the governor
made it his new abode. The governorship candidate ,
Dakuku Peterside , has a followership capable of
intimidating even the bravest opposition .
The party’ s chapter has been giving the PDP a run for
its money, insisting that Jonathan cannot win the state .
APC ’ s chairman in Rivers , Davies Ikanya, said Jonathan
had committed 25 grievous sins for which the state will
never vote for him .
The sins , according to him, include neglect, stalling of
some projects envisaged to develop the state , lack of
implementation of some projects , violence and
corruption among others.
The party has been mobilising against Jonathan and
pushing Buhari’ s candidature with remarkable results,
going by attendance at rallies and campaigns.
But the PDP is no pushover yet in Rivers . Not when its
governorship candidate , Nyesom Wike , is still around .
Wike has fought Amaechi to a standstill , using federal
might and presidential connections. He also attracts
crowds.
Besides , First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan , is also
from the state . She has been mobilising for her husband
among her people . But many are not happy with her
role in the standoff in the state . There may protest with
votes against Jonathan at the poll.
Being a cosmopolitan state with an incumbent governor
rooting for Buhari, the APC presidential candidate may
carry the state . Jonathan , on his own , will also make
serious impact among voters based on ethnic and
religious considerations as well as the influence of his
wife .
Verdict: Battleground
EDO
That the 2011 presidential election in Edo State was a
stroll in the park for President Jonathan is stating the
obvious . The president garnered 542 , 173 votes as
against 17 , 795 votes for Buhari.
The president ’ s victory in 2011 was largely due to the
‘ home boy’ factor , coupled with the maximum support
offered him by the state governor , Adams Oshiomhole,
who mobilised the people in support of Jonathan .
But next Saturday’ s election in the state is likely to be a
different ball game , as the governor has turned his back
against the President. In the last couple of weeks , he
has embarked on a vigorous campaign for the APC
presidential candidate and other candidates of the party
across the nooks and crannies of the state .
While the Edo governor has intensified campaign for
Buhari, no one seems to be doing same for the
President, as the acclaimed leader of Edo PDP , Chief
Anthony Anenih , appears to be spending more time in
Abuja thus delegating the task of campaigning for the
president to less influential party chieftains.
During his campaign stumps across the state , the
governor’ s campaign message that the PDP -led federal
government has neglected the state in terms of
infrastructural projects has resonated well with the
people , many of whom have keyed into the change
mantra being propagated by the APC .
The influence of traditional institutions – especially the
respected Oba of Benin is also a factor to watch.
Sources say a crisis of confidence has broken out
among prominent Benin chiefs over who to endorse
between the two major candidates .
With just seven days to the election , what has become
apparent is that Edo election would be a close call
between Buhari and Jonathan who may still be counting
on South- South solidarity to prevail .
Verdict: Too close to call
DELTA
In spite of recording a landslide victory in 2011,
President Jonathan and the PDP are not taking anything
for granted .
And this is understandable. The ruling party is facing
some tough challenges ranging from gradual resurgence
of the APC in addition to inter- ethnic suspicion and
rivalry in the state .
Indeed, if there is one factor that could impact
negatively on the President ’ s electoral chances in the
state , it is the alleged disenchantment of some ethnic
groups including Itsekiri and the Urhobos against the
Ijaws , the President’ s ethnic group.
For the Itsekiris, their grouses are legion . First, is the
controversy over the site of the $ 16 billion Delta Gas
City project at Ogidigben in Warri South local
government area with the Ijaws claiming ownership of
the land said to belong to the Itsekiri.
The groundbreaking of the project suffered several
postponements until a few weeks ago when the
President visited Warri and reportedly appeased the
Itsekiri with his commitment to the commencement of
the project .
But not a few however believe that the President’ s fence
mending was borne not out of genuine love for the
Itsekiri , but to win their votes in the presidential
election .
There are also others who are not happy with how the
state governor, Dr . Emmanuel Uduaghan , was “shabbily
treated ” by the PDP in the run - up to the party ’ s
senatorial and governorship primaries early this year.
The governor’ s desire to have his preferred candidate
emerge as the governorship candidate not only failed,
he was also compelled to step down for an Ijaw man ,
Senator James Manager , who is running for another
term to represent Delta South in the National Assembly .
Among the Urhobos too , there is a sharp division within
the influential Urhobo Progressive Union ( UPU) , the
umbrella body of all Urhobos . Some of its leading lights
are reportedly drumming support for Jonathan , while
others have allegedly pitched their tent with Buhari .
As the largest ethnic group in Delta State , the Urhobos
have the numbers to determine where the pendulum of
victory would swing in the election .
Verdict: Slim victory for Jonathan
BAYELSA
Four years ago, the opposition was practically non-
existent in Bayelsa , the home state of the President. The
result of the 2011 presidential election proved
But the situation is different today , thanks to the
defection of notable politicians to the APC , including the
immediate former governor of the state , Timipre Sylvia ,
a former senator, Fred Oboro , former Security Adviser to
Sylva, Chief Richard Kpodo, former Youth Leader of PDP
in the South - South , Mr. Godwin Sidi and a former
Chairman of Southern Ijaw Local Government, Timipa
Orunemigha.
Since his parting ways with the President and PDP ,
Sylvia has slowly but steadily positioned the APC as a
viable opposition , a development the Presidency is not
comfortable with .
Sources say the former governor , who is also contesting
for the Senate on March 28 against media entrepreneur,
Ben Bruce , is determined to prove a point that he
remains a factor in Bayelsa politics.
But more worrisome for the President’ s camp , is the
threat by some loyalists of the incumbent governor ,
Seriake Dickson, not to vote for the President over what
they perceive as the overbearing influence of his wife ,
Dame Patience Jonathan, who has been at loggerheads
with the governor.
The homeboy factor in spite of the incursion of the APC ,
analysts argue , would come handy for the President
when the chips are down.
Verdict: Safe bet for Jonathan
OSUN
In Osun , which is firmly under the control of the APC ,
Jonathan will not have a good showing on election day.
All through the electioneering campaign , the President
found it difficult to get listening ears. His visits to the
state have receive no appreciable attention from the
people considering the mammoth crowd that thronged
the Osogbo City Sports Stadium to receive Buhari and
his team twice when he visited the state in continuation
of his presidential campaign .
This will be no surprise in Osun where , in spite of his
good showing in the region in 2011 , the President still
lost to the Action Congress of Nigeria ( ACN ) candidate
by a wide margin . With Governor Rauf Aregbesola still in
charge and the PDP declining in status by the day,
Buhari is positioned to win massively in the state .
Aregbesola ’ s convincing victory during last year’ s
governorship election and the rancour that saw PDP
losing two former governors of the state , Isiaka Adeleke
and Olagunsoye Oyinlola and former Speaker Olubunmi
Etteh, to the APC in quick succession will also work
against Jonathan .
Verdict: APC 80% ; PDP 20%
EKITI
Given current permutations in Governor Ayodele
Fayose ’ s state after the six weeks shift in election date ,
President Jonathan may run away with a slight victory
over Buhari. During the June 21 , 2014 governorship
election held in Ekiti State , the APC failed to retain the
state . The surprise emergence of Fayose as governor is
no doubt a boost for Jonathan and the PDP in the
presidential election . If the preference of Fayose , an
unrepentant Jonathan supporter is to count , then PDP
will carry the day.
Of course , the APC is not likely to go down without a
good fight in the state given the fact that it is in the
majority in the House of Assembly as well as National
Assembly members in the state . The fact that it was in
charge of the state for four years barely months back , is
also an advantage for Buhari. In addition, the
reconciliation of Michael Opeyemi Bamidele ,
gubernatorial candidate of the LP at the last election
with the APC leadership will give PDP more troubles.
But Fayose has shown that he ’ s willing to do all that in
necessary to prevail . This may override all other factors
and give the day to Jonathan in the state .
Verdict: APC 40% ; PDP 60%
ONDO
Few weeks back , the political drama that saw the
massive decamping of major political actors from one
political party to the other , which started in 2014 and
continued into the new year , gave the impression that it
may be too close to decide who wins in Ondo State .
However , the unresolved intra party crisis that bedeviled
the ruling PDP in the state following the entrance of
Governor Olusegun Mimiko into the party may have
given the APC a serious edge in the contest for
presidential votes.
In quick succession , the Mimiko camp lost the likes of
Hon . Gani Daodu representing Akoko North West and
East Federal Constituency at the National Assembly ,
Hon . Gbenga Edema representing Ilaje Constituency II
and Hon . Folasade Olasehinde representing Ose
Constituency to the APC . More defections were to
follow as Mimiko battled old members of his new party
for control of party structure.
Although the coming of Mimko into Jonathan ’ s party
initially boosted the chances of the president in the
state considering the fact that Ondo was before now a
Labour Party ( LP ) controlled state , his unending face -
off with leaders of the party made nonsense of the
political gains of his defection.
This argument is premised on the calculation that it
was a united PDP , adequately supported by the then
ruling Labour Party that gave Jonathan 85.66 % of the
total votes counted in the state in 2011 . With the now
ruling PDP torn to shreds and the LP no longer in
Mimiko’ s kitty , coupled with a fast growing opposition
APC in the same state , pundits say Jonathan may not
be able to win the oil rich state on March 28 .
Jonathan and Buhari will fight hard for votes in Ondo
State . Given that Ondo is now a PDP state following
Mimiko’ s defection and its proximity to the President’ s
native Bayelsa State as well as the large presence of
Ijaw speaking communities in the oil producing area of
the state , he will have a good showing in the southern
part of the state .
But with Buhari running on the platform of the APC this
time and the general feeling of marginalisation among
the Yorubas , his performance in the mainland and other
parts of the state will receive a serious boost from what
it was in 2011. The situation in Ondo is such that
Buhari may just enjoy a very slight victory over
Jonathan in a close race.
Verdict: Narrow victory for Buhari and APC
LAGOS
Although President Jonathan in recent weeks made
tremendous effort at swaying the electorate in Lagos in
his favor , not much was achieved by his political
maneuvers. If anything , the President and his team gave
the people of the state ample opportunities to critically
examine why they should vote for any of the two leading
candidates.
Before now , Lagosians were disappointed that the
President merely coming to Lagos when he launched his
campaign , to attack personalities and not to discuss
issues. The people , it appeared would have loved the
President to tell the people about his achievement in
office and how he intends to improve on the
achievements .
Not even the recent attempt by the PDP to discredit
APC ’ s national leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu ,
appeared to have succeeded as polls continue to give
the state to Buhari and his party. The near non- existing
influence of Afenifere chieftains in the state is also a
factor that made nonsense of the President’ s effort to
play the ethnic card in the state .
Thus , contrary to the posturing of people like Bode
George, the most popular position is that Buhari will
outshine Jonathan at the polls in Lagos State . APC ’ s
control of political structures in the state is massive –
from state to local council levels . This gives it an
unparalleled ability to turn out the votes on polling day.
PDP ’ s attempt to play the ethnic card appealing to
certain non- indigenous ethnic groups has been
neutralized by APC getting its governors and leaders like
Kwankwaso , Na ’ Abba and Buhari to speak directly with
other ethnic groups whose numbers are equally large in
the state .
Another terrible miscalculation was the pro - Jonathan
rally held in Lagos by the Gani Adams - led Oodua
Peoples Congress ( OPC ) and other supporters of the
president . The event turned into an orgy of violence with
motorists being harassed by gun- totting OPC members
and billboards of APC members being vandalized . Public
reactions to the outing have been decidedly negative for
Jonathan and PDP .
By the time all of the above are placed side by side with
the unending crises that have rocked the PDP in the
state for years, Buhari is in pole position to prevail on
March 28 .
Verdict: APC 75% ; PDP 25%
OGUN
An array of PDP chieftains, including controversial Buruji
Kashamu, former party boss , Joju Fadairo and Doyin
Okupe , amongst others, are working round the clock to
deliver the votes in the state to Jonathan . They are no
doubt determined to beat the APC to second place .
But matching the popularity of the ruling party and the
wide acceptance of Governor Ibikunle Amosun is a huge
task for Jonathan ’ s men. Consequently, Buhari ’ s visit to
Abeokuta few days back was a huge success that saw
the people of the Gateway State trooping out to see
him.
An earlier visit by Jonathan also saw a mammoth
crowd but the frenzy that greeted the APC rally gave
indication of where the votes may go . Amosun’ s track
record of achievements , especially in the area of urban
renewal , which has seen the massive construction of
roads and bridges will be an added advantage for his
party.
Also, the seeming ‘ siddon look ’ attitude of people like
former Governor Gbenga Daniel , former Speaker Dimeji
Bankole, Jubril Martins Kuye and a host of other
aggrieved PDP leaders may work against Jonathan in
the state unless something urgent is done.
The indisputable political place of ex - President Olusegun
Obasanjo and his unhidden opposition to Jonathan ’ s
aspiration, which peaked with his card -tearing exit from
the party few weeks back , will also work in favor of
Buhari and his party .
Verdict: APC to win with 70% to 30 % vote spread
OYO
In Oyo state , the tattered state of Jonathan ’ s party may
aid Buhari ’ s victory . APC also controls the state
government. Pundits also say that aside , Oyo is a core
Yoruba state where the feeling of marginalisation is
deep - rooted.
Although the likes of Jumoke Akinjide , Jonathan ’ s
minister from the state , and Senator Teslim Folarin ,
gubernatorial candidate , are of the opinion that the
people will vote for the Presdient, indications that this
may not be so are numerous. The daily defection of
party leaders from the PDP , which started with the exit
of former Governor Adebayo Alao - Akala remains an
issue. Although it is believed that Ladoja and Alao -
Akala are working for Jonathan ’ s candidacy unofficially.
With APC determined to hold on to the state , enjoying
the support of all the first class monarchs including
Alaafin of Oyo , Soun of Ogbomosho , Olubadan of Ibadan
etc, Jonathan may find it difficult getting votes in Oyo .
Verdict: APC 80% – PDP 20%
CONCLUSION : General Buhari is projected to prevail in
the North West, North East , North Central and South
West , while President Jonathan would win in the South -
South and South East
CULLED FROM THE NATION